Conference "Forecasting and Monetary Policy"

Central banks now routinely release, and comment, on forecasts for macroeconomic and financial variables, using a variety of methodologies in preparing and presenting forecasts. Some publish a staff forecast, others rely on professional forecasts, while still other forecasts may be from the monetary policy committee or its members. Central banks also compete with forecasts made by financial institutions and private foundations or research organizations, with potential implications for their credibility and the monetary policy environment. Against this background, the organizers are interested in empirical and methodological papers that examine forecast uncertainty, the use and construction of fan charts, the performance of forecasts from various modeling approaches (e.g., DSGE versus VAR type models), forecast comparisons and combinations, the debate about whether central bankers should release their own forecasts, whether conditional forecasts of the future policy track are advisable and current experiences with such forecasts. The conference will be held at the Berlin branch of the Bundesbank and will have its president as Keynote Speaker. Links: call for papers. For more information: [Viessman European Research Centre] and [Bundesbank].